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The GDP analysis generates discussions around several economic segments, and understanding the historical factors can contribute to dealing with problems that arise in financial crises. Economic growth depends on trade relations -internal and external- in different economic sectors. The COVID-19
pandemic
affects several economic sectors worldwide; trade expects to fall even more steeply,
consequently
impacting GDP and
unemployment
.
Therefore
, governments need to act to mitigate negative consequences. The GDP growth trend is related to periods of expansion and economic recession; historically, in periods of economic development, we have low
unemployment
rates than periods of recession. There is an inversely proportional relationship between GDP and the
unemployment
rate. According to Okun's Law, a one
percent
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per cent
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increase in the
unemployment
rate generates a two
percent
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per cent
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drop in GDP. We can see
this
strong correlation in the current scenario of the COVID-19
pandemic
, with the
unemployment
caused by COVID-19, currently, at 16%, GDP is forecast to fall by 27.6% or more in the United States (USA Today, 2020). GDP
also
reduces when there is a reduction in product demand. With the increase in
unemployment
caused by economic crises, the need for products falls and,
consequently
, producers have less
income
. In Canada, with the consequences of the COVID-19
pandemic
, the forecast is a drop by 12-32% in the agriculture business, which might strongly impact producers' revenues due to falling prices. These revenue impacts will contribute to the reduction in GDP (Barichello, 2020).
For instance
, it is necessary to find a solution to maintain consumption and,
consequently
, the producers'
income
. Dealing with the economic problems generated in a crisis requires knowing the source of the issues. In an
unemployment
scenario, it is crucial to stimulate the population's demand and to maintain production.
Consequently
, the effect on the drop in GDP and on the
unemployment
rate may be lower. Canada adopted
income
support programs to mitigate the
pandemic
's impacts; disposable
income
increased by 11% in the
second
quarter of 2020, reflecting an economic recovery almost twice that of the United States. (Reuters, 2020). To conclude,
although
the GDP analysis is thorough and involves several related concepts, understanding historical factors and their relationships is fundamental to building effective solutions to deal with future economic crises.
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