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Because of the many inquiries by journalists and rights groups over the past year, we know that the ammonium nitrate -- stored alongside fireworks in a poorly maintained warehouse -- was a disaster waiting to happen. Six urgent letters sent by customs officials since 2014 -- the year the material was unloaded at the

port

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under mysterious circumstances -- had alerted the authorities to the danger posed by the chemicals. One was written by a

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official in May 2020, just months before the blast. "

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substance, if ignited, will lead to a large explosion, and its outcome will almost obliterate the

port

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of Beirut. If the substance were exposed to any kind of theft, the thief would be able to use

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substance to build explosives," warned the document, which was obtained by CNN after the incident. Beirut's

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is just 100 meters from some of the city's most densely-populated

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. The blast destroyed not only a large part of the

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,

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but

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left swathes of the city in tatters. The damage was estimated at between $3.8 and $4.6 billion. It is clear that successive leaders — four governments and three prime ministers — either would have or should have known about the threat posed by the material, and that little was done to address the danger. But what is far from clear, 12 months on, is what ignited the ammonium nitrate. According to a report by Human Rights Watch, Tarek Bitar, the judge charged with investigating the explosion, is looking into several theories. One is that sparks from welding works that day caused a fire in hangar 12, the warehouse where the chemical was being stored. Another is that an Israeli strike was the catalyst, though Lebanese aviation officials reported that local radar systems did not detect military aircraft over Lebanese airspace in

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hour or so before the blast, Israeli officials have denied any involvement, and Bitar himself has said the Israel theory was highly unlikely, according to HRW's report.